Rationally Thinking Out Loud

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America’s ‘Retail Apocalypse’ Is Really Just Beginning | Bloomberg.com

America’s ‘Retail Apocalypse’ Is Really Just Beginning

The so-called retail apocalypse has become so ingrained in the U.S. that it now has the distinction of its own Wikipedia entry. The industry’s response to that kind of doomsday description has included blaming the media for hyping the troubles of a few well-known chains as proof of a systemic meltdown.

Medicine requires doctors to constantly manage probabilities | KevinMD.com

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Medicine requires doctors to constantly manage probabilities

“I’d really feel better if we got the MRI,” Ms. James said. “I understand you think it’s a migraine, but I want to know, just in case. Wouldn’t you?” Ms. James and I sat in her darkened hospital room-the light bothered her eyes and exacerbated her headache.

More on understanding Probabilities in Medicine:

How Well Do We Understand Probabilities In Medicine?

In his bestselling book, Fooled by Randomness (which was named one of the smartest books of all time by Fortune magazine), Nassim Nicholas Taleb discusses a question that was posed to a group of medical doctors. A test of a disease presents a rate of 5% false positives.

Probability Science in medicine and physics

Probability Science and its problems, especially for medicine and physics


Trump’s presidency is unravelling. But he won’t fall without a push | Gary Younge | Opinion | The Guardian

Trump’s presidency is unravelling. But he won’t fall without a push | Gary Younge

Even by Donald Trump’s standards, Tuesday was extraordinary. First came the tweet that he had fired his secretary of state Rex Tillerson. Then a state department spokesman issued a statement claiming Tillerson was “unaware of the reason” for his dismissal, and had heard about it on Twitter.

Tax cut scoreboard: Workers $6 billion; Shareholders: $171 billion – Feb. 16, 2018

Tax cut scoreboard: Workers $6 billion; Shareholders $171 billion

Yet shareholders, not workers, are far bigger direct winners from the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017. American companies have lavished Wall Street with $171 billion of stock buyback announcements so far this year, according to research firm Birinyi Associates.

GOP Rep Gowdy says Russia hurt Hillary Clinton campaign

Certainly no fan or friend of Hillary Clinton South Carolina Republican Trey Gowdy (from 2014 to 2016, Gowdy chaired and spent $7.8 million with the United States House Select Committee on Events Surrounding the 2012 Terrorist Attack in Benghazi unsuccessfully trying to find Hillary Clinton criminality) says:

“clear, based on the evidence, Russia had disdain for Secretary Clinton and was motivated in whole or in part by a desire to harm her candidacy or undermine her Presidency had she prevailed.”

Rep. Trey Gowdy disagrees with GOP colleagues in House probe, says Russia wanted to hurt Clinton

Emily Hytha, a spokeswoman for Conaway, said that the assessment of the intelligence community “did not meet minimum tradecraft standards for drawing a conclusion one way or the other as to whether the Russians were trying to help President Trump. What was clear throughout our investigation is that the Russians were trying to divide country any way they could.”

The Psychology of Progressive Hostility – Quillette

…The liberal philosopher John Stuart Mill once explained that, “The greatest orator, save one, of antiquity, has left it on record that he always studied his adversary’s case with as great, if not with still greater, intensity than even his own.” Mill held that unless we carefully study the views of those with whom we disagree, we will never really know what they’re right or wrong about. “He who knows only his own side of the case,” Mill wrote in his 1859 book On Liberty, “knows little of that.” Our opponents could be right for all we know or care, because they may know a fact or offer an argument we’ve never thought to consider. And even if they aren’t right, Mill points out that specks of truth may exist among their falsehoods which can guide our minds in new directions.

The Psychology of Progressive Hostility – Quillette

Recently, I arrived at a moment of introspection about a curious aspect of my own behavior. When I disagree with a conservative friend or colleague on some political issue, I have no fear of speaking my mind. I talk, they listen, they respond, I talk some more, and at the end of it we get along just as we always have.

Why Nobody Wins Unless Everybody Wins | Harvard Business Review

Written back in 2010, it is still true today…

Why Nobody Wins Unless Everybody Wins

Most people who know me know that I’m a devoted Bruce Springsteen fan. I’ve spent more than 30 years listening to his music, attending his live shows (more than 100 so far, and still counting), and otherwise paying close attention to what he writes, sings, and says.

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