International (Iran threatens to close the Strait of Hormuz)
In a conversation I was having yesterday regarding politics it was mentioned by someone that if Iran were to shut or block The Strait of Hormuz it would take us ‘three months to deploy the assets we would need to counter Iran‘……So I tried to verify that claim….. I can’t. So far I can’t find anything at all that supports that claim although I am beginning to suspect now given what I’ve read that when I do find something that makes that ‘three month’ claim its going to come from someone on the far right who is just trying to make a partisan attack on the Obama administration foreign policy and military preparedness. It’s bullshit. As Secretary of Defense Leon Pannetta has stated: “We obviously always continue to make preparations to be prepared for any contingency, but we are not making any special steps… because we’re fully prepared to deal with that situation now,” (ref) One report I read stated:
Despite consensus on the importance of the strait, no open-source analysis has attempted to answer these questions systematically.5 Some analysts take the Iranian ability to block the strait as a given, whereas others are equally con- adent the United States’ military superiority would deter or quickly end any Iranian campaign.6 One observer argues that “countering any Iranian block- ade might involve only a few days of aghting, with major disruption to ship- ping lasting only slightly longer.”7 Another warns that the United States might have to engage in weeks or months of military operations to open and defend the strait.8 Anthony Cordesman, a highly respected expert on the Persian Gulf, concludes that “Iran could not ‘close the Gulf’ for more than a few days to two weeks,” although what leads him to this conclusion is unclear.9 Meanwhile, the director of the Defense Intelligence Agency, Vice Adm. Lowell Jacoby, testiaed in 2005 that Iran has some capability to “brieoy close” the strait, with- out deaning what “brieoy” means.10 In short, analysts disagree about the po- tential likelihood, course, and outcome of U.S.-Iranian conoict in the Strait of Hormuz, but the nature of current debate on the subject makes it hard to ascer- tain the basis of differing assessments, much less determine which might be correct. (ref)
But noting I have read said it would take 3 months for us, the U.S. or any joint force to deploy.
- Panetta: U.S. prepared for Hormuz Strait action | The Raw Story
- Stop oil sales to EU now, says Iran politician – Reuters –.
- EU slaps Iran with oil embargo over nukes – CBS News
- How long can Iran keep the Straits of Hormuz closed? | Iranian.com
…In her detailed analysis of Iran’s military hardware and likely deployment strategy versus U.S. countermeasures Dr. Talmadge’s optimistic estimate for clearing the straits is 37 days. She allows 9 days to eliminate the anti-ship missile threat and another 28 days for U.S. ships to deal with the mines without having to worry about missiles raining down on them. Her most pessimistic forecast is 112 days—72 days for the missiles and 40 days for disabling enough of Iran’s naval mines. [read on…]
- Can Iran close down the straight of Hormuz? | Risk Management | Ocean Protection Services
- Iran Outlines Key Steps And Actors In A Potential Straits Of Hormuz Closure | ZeroHedge
- Iran Able to Block Strait of Hormuz, General Dempsey Says on CBS – Bloomberg
- How to Re-Open the Strait of Hormuz After Iran Shuts It | Battleland | TIME.com
- Outside-In: Operating from Range to Defeat Iran’s Anti-Access and Area-Denial Threats | CSBA
- Panetta: U.S. prepared for Hormuz Strait action | The Raw Story
- Iran threatens to close Strait of Hormuz over EU oil sanctions – Telegraph
- Closing Time: Assessing the Iranian Threat to the Strait of Hormuz – Harvard – Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs
- Closing Time: Assessing the Iranian Threat to the Strait of Hormuz (PDF)
- Why Closing the Strait of Hormuz Would Backfire on Iran – Hamed Aleaziz and Robin Mills, The Atlantic – NationalJournal.com
- Let’s Hope Iran Tries To Close The World’s Oil Spigot | Danger Room | Wired.com
What keeps the U.S. Navy’s top officer awake at night? “The Strait of Hormuz,” Adm. Jonathan Greenert confessed during a speech on Tuesday morning. Greenert meant that he’s worried Iran will close one of the planet’s most strategically important waterways, through which about 20 percent of the world’s oil flows. The Iranians have spent weeks threatening to do just that.
Greenert is certainly right to worry, especially as the U.S.S. John C. Stennis‘ battle group just passed through the strait. But in a sense, he should hope Iran tries to close the Strait of Hormuz. There are few mistakes Iran could make that would be worse for it in the long run.
Why? Because Iran would suddenly be responsible for sending world energy prices skyrocketing — perhaps to $200 a barrel — after a disruption of Gulf oil shipping. Washington usually has a hard sell when convincing other countries that Iran’s regional bellicosity and lack of transparency on its nuclear program merits a tough response. But when Iran hits the entire world in the wallet, the argument gets substantially easier.
Especially when making that argument in Beijing. The Chinese, in need of Mideast oil to propel their economy, often try to temper hostilities between the U.S. and Iran, lest regional instability stops the flow of crude. [read on…]
- EU Hits Iran With Oil Ban, Bank Asset Freeze in Bid to Halt Nuclear Plan – Bloomberg
SOPA & PIPA
- Clay Shirky: Why SOPA is a bad idea | Video on TED.com
- Does the Megaupload takedown prove that SOPA is unnecessary? – The Washington Post
- Atlas Slugged — Mitt Romney’s loss in South Carolina betrays a party struggling to defend capitalism in the post-Occupy Wall Street era.
- Democurmudgeon: Don’t Question Authority, Newt Bashes Media. Crowd cheers their Golden Idol.
- Gallup: Obama’s third-year approval ratings among lowest – The Washington Post
- Via Brad DeLong: The Repubicans Are Now a Big Problem for All of Us…: This is Not Excellent News for Romney — Booman Tribune ~ A Progressive Community
- » Republicans Have The Weakest Final Four Ever Liberal Values
- The Immoral Minority: I think the Washington Post nailed this one.
Politics — Newt Gingrich
- Garlow: Only Gingrich can stop the ‘Radical Homosexual Agenda’ and Obama from ‘Destroying’ Marriage | Right Wing Watch
- Gingrich on SOPA Proves Even a Stopped Clock is Right Twice a Day? – YouTube
- SC Primary Voter: ‘We Need Someone Who’s Mean’ | Crooks and Liars
- Newt Gingrich takes page from Saul Alinsky playbook – Lynn Sweet
- Alexander Ryking: FACT CHECK: Gingrich’s food-stamp claim
Number of people who went on food stamps under Bush: 14.7 million.
Number of people who went on food stamps under Obama: 14.2 million.
Do the math… and remember that the vast majority of the 14.2 million under Obama are there because of the Bush Recession, a recession that didn’t end until June of 2009.
- Newt Gingrich Visits the “Holy Ghost Bartender” | Religion Dispatches
- Suffering Cats! They’re Back, Again! GOP Debate Live Blog | Firedoglake
I’m still a bit shocked that people are still surprised that the GOP Presidential Clown Car could roll through South Carolina — the state that gave us nullification, the Civil War, John C. Calhoon, and a hundred and fifty years succession of secessionist, racists politicians — and have it captured by a dog-whistling practitioner of the ugly art of racial and classist demagoguery.
What did anyone expect? Newt knows his history when he needs it, and history tells him that you can be an absolutely horrible human being there and win big. [Read on…]