International (Iran threatens to close the Strait of Hormuz)

In a conversation I was having yesterday regarding politics it was mentioned by someone that if Iran were to shut  or block The Strait of Hormuz it would take us ‘three months to deploy the assets we would need to counter Iran‘……So I tried to verify that claim….. I can’t. So far I can’t find anything at all that supports that claim although I am beginning to suspect now given what I’ve read that when I do find something that makes that ‘three month’ claim its going to come from someone on the far right who is just trying to make a partisan attack on the Obama administration foreign policy and military preparedness. It’s bullshit. As Secretary of Defense  Leon Pannetta has stated: “We obviously always continue to make preparations to be prepared for any contingency, but we are not making any special steps… because we’re fully prepared to deal with that situation now,” (ref) One report I read stated:

Despite consensus on the importance of the strait, no open-source analysis has attempted to answer these questions systematically.5 Some analysts take the Iranian ability to block the strait as a given, whereas others are equally con- adent the United States’ military superiority would deter or quickly end any Iranian campaign.6 One observer argues that “countering any Iranian block- ade might involve only a few days of aghting, with major disruption to ship- ping lasting only slightly longer.”7 Another warns that the United States might have to engage in weeks or months of military operations to open and defend the strait.8 Anthony Cordesman, a highly respected expert on the Persian Gulf, concludes that “Iran could not ‘close the Gulf’ for more than a few days to two weeks,” although what leads him to this conclusion is unclear.9 Meanwhile, the director of the Defense Intelligence Agency, Vice Adm. Lowell Jacoby, testiaed in 2005 that Iran has some capability to “brieoy close” the strait, with- out deaning what “brieoy” means.10 In short, analysts disagree about the po- tential likelihood, course, and outcome of U.S.-Iranian conoict in the Strait of Hormuz, but the nature of current debate on the subject makes it hard to ascer- tain the basis of differing assessments, much less determine which might be correct. (ref)

But noting I have read said it would take 3 months for us, the U.S. or any joint force to deploy.



Politics — Newt Gingrich


Climate & Climate Politics

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