- The National Memo » Obama Replants Goalposts In Political Midfield
- Immigration Reform Plan Splits GOP Down National-Local Line
Science — On Prospect Theory
Last night while re-listening to the audiobook Made to Stick: Why Some Ideas Survive and Others Die and in Chapter 2 the authors (Chip & Dan Heath) brought up an example of Prospect theory in action and googling around at lunch I found this:
- How to Make Better Decisions | Watch Free Documentary Online
- Kahneman and Tversky’s Prospect Theory
…One very important result of Kahneman and Tversky work is demonstrating that people’s attitudes toward risks concerning gains may be quite different from their attitudes toward risks concerning losses. For example, when given a choice between getting $1000 with certainty or having a 50% chance of getting $2500 they may well choose the certain $1000 in preference to the uncertain chance of getting $2500 even though the mathematical expectation of the uncertain option is $1250. This is a perfectly reasonable attitude that is described as risk-aversion. But Kahneman and Tversky found that the same people when confronted with a certain loss of $1000 versus a 50% chance of no loss or a $2500 loss do often choose the risky alternative. This is called risk-seeking behavior. This is not necessarily irrational but it is important for analysts to recognize the asymmetry of human choices….
- Debunking Christianity: There Isn’t a Bad Reason to Reject the Christian Faith
I have been thinking about Christianity for over forty years. I believed it. I preached it. I earned several master’s degrees in it. I taught it. I learned to reject it. Then for over seven years on a daily basis I have sought to argue against it. I have written, co-written and/or edited five published books in five years containing the results of everything I have learned, which should lead thinking people to reject it. But I have to confess here and now, up front and center, that there isn’t a bad reason to reject the Christian faith. I don’t expect people to agree. It’s a conclusion I have come to from everything I have learned. Again, there isn’t a bad reason to reject the Christian faith. Since there might be one I’ll leave it up to someone to suggest it. Otherwise, my claim stands.
So let me merely introduce…(read the complete article…)
- Debunking Christianity: There Isn’t a Bad Reason to Reject the Christian Faith, Part 2