From the article—
“Biden has no explanation for why he is suitable to lead a party whose base is rapidly moving leftward, given his history on the center-right of the party. Why should a guy who voted for the Iraq War, financial deregulation, and bankruptcy reform; who was a key architect of rolling back school integration; and who is implicated in dozens of other historic atrocities be appropriate for the Democratic Party of 2019?
I think we all know that the key to the electoral college win is in winning Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.
In this so-called booming economy of all the states Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin are at the bottom of the list as far as benefiting from it. Nationally 46% of Americans say their financial status has stayed the same under trump, and 21% say it’s deteriorated so that is 67% of the populace that isn’t seeing the benefits of the tax cuts and Wall Street boom and those numbers are probably even worse for Trump in those rust belt states.
Trump only won those states by a by a combined margin of 77,744 votes. A combined margin of JUST 77,744 votes, that’s just a football stadium full of people.
And if the economic news in those states wasn’t already poor just this week U.S. Steel Corp. announced that it will close the Great Lakes Works mill near Detroit, laying off more than 1,500 workers after recently laying off 200 as it tries to address financial losses.
Also the previously red states of Florida and Arizona are now considered toss ups.
BUT all those economic considerations aside I think and a lot of pundits do too that since most people your age and mine are already set in our ways and thinking about where our votes are going the election really comes down to turnout of new voters and Trumps support amongst the 18-34 age cohort has been slowly decreasing from its already pitifully low level and he continues to lose their support over low paying jobs with no benefits, high levels of college debt, and most notably gun control and climate change.
Pollster Lee Miringoff of The Marist Poll said months ago “We saw it in the midterm turnout where young folks were much higher, and the biggest growth group of any age group.” If that trend, that part of the blue wave we saw in 2018 continues, Trump is in real trouble.
I do not think Biden is the candidate that will excite and supercharge millennials in those battleground states and get them out to vote. What is Biden’s message about a future to that cohort? Bernie (and Warren) however are speaking to what the millennial cohort wants.
It looks like who ever wins the millennials and mobilizes them to vote wins the election.
I also thing Joe Biden’s Hunter Biden Burisma problem is going to be like HRC’s EMail Server problem. It won’t matter how innocuous it was to the Trumplicans and they’ll rally around it and there is always a potential Comey moment too. Imagine Attorney General Barr announcing something, anything, about Hunter Biden and Burisma in the week before the election.
The Democratic primary has had much hue and cry over Pete Buttigieg, Elizabeth Warren, and Bernie Sanders of late. Yet the front-runner continues to be former Vice President Joe Biden, and there is little sign as yet that he is going to lose his lead, despite his fumbling campaign.