“I’d really feel better if we got the MRI,” Ms. James said. “I understand you think it’s a migraine, but I want to know, just in case. Wouldn’t you?” Ms. James and I sat in her darkened hospital room-the light bothered her eyes and exacerbated her headache.
More on understanding Probabilities in Medicine:
In his bestselling book, Fooled by Randomness (which was named one of the smartest books of all time by Fortune magazine), Nassim Nicholas Taleb discusses a question that was posed to a group of medical doctors. A test of a disease presents a rate of 5% false positives.
Probability Science and its problems, especially for medicine and physics